“The child care industry is the one that seems to have the most upside,” says Gable.
The effects of the new government’s focus on climate change mitigation and support for renewable energy and electric vehicles could also have longer-term benefits for more patient investors.
Under the Feed Australia policy, the Labor Party plans to cut carbon emissions by 43% by 2030 and aim for net zero by 2050. It will invest $20 billion in modernizing the electricity grid to improve it for the interface with an increase in renewable electricity.
Even if Labor forms a majority to govern on their own, more climate-sensitive independents, as well as the Greens in Parliament, would likely keep the pressure on carbon emitters, including fossil fuel companies such as carbon producers. oil and gas Woodside Petroleum and Santos.
However, Gable says the effects are more likely to be longer term. He does not expect any imminent change in the value or outlook of listed energy companies, such as coal producers or renewable energy-related businesses.
“Any change in the energy sector is quite advanced,” he says.
Interest rates and inflation
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) makes decisions independently of government.
Although Labor is likely to spend more and increase the deficit, spending was already high under the coalition.
The RBA raised official interest rates from 0.1% to 0.35% last month to fight inflation – the first increase in more than a decade. Most economists expect the cash rate to end this year between 1.5 and 2%.
The RBA could raise the cash rate by 0.4 percentage points at its next meeting in early June, rather than its usual increase of 0.25 percentage points, in a bid to lower inflation expectations.
The increase would almost certainly trickle down to mortgage holders in the form of increased home loan repayments.
The outlook for house prices remains “subdued” as higher interest rates translate into higher mortgage rates, reducing the borrowing capacity of potential buyers, says Andrew Wilson, chief economist at My Housing Market.
He expects the change in government to have minimal impact on the housing market.
work “Purchasing assistance” program for first-time home buyers – where the government becomes co-owner of the property – will only have 10,000 places a year and is unlikely to stimulate demand enough to have an impact on prices.
Economists still expect house prices to fall by up to 15% from peak to trough nationwide.
Prices in Sydney and Melbourne have seen modest declines since the start of this year, but the pace of declines in both cities are expected to accelerate as interest rates rise.
Great at 12 percent
Labor’s victory undoubtedly puts the pension guarantee increase at 12 per cent.
The Morrison government committed to the increase during the election campaign, but a group of influential coalition backbenchers had long opposed the increase.
The next hike, scheduled by law to take effect July 1, will see a mandatory employer-paid super-rise of 0.5 percentage points to 10.5% of wages. The rate will increase in increments of 0.5 percentage points each year until it reaches 12% in 2025.
Gasoline prices have risen again, with the temporary fuel tax halving providing only short-term relief to households.
CommSec estimates that it costs the average family $278.74 per month to fill up on gas, up $57 per month from the start of the year.
Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, says this shows how the fuel tax cut can easily be consumed by price swings in the oil and gasoline markets.
The fuel tax cut is due to end on September 28, and it remains unclear whether Labor intends to extend it.
The new government has promised to reduce the cost of drugs by reducing the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme co-payment from a maximum of $42.50 per prescription to $30. The move should particularly benefit older Australians.